Bitcoin at the End of a Bull Cycle?
Recently, the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, revealed that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has come to an end.
In a post on platform X on March 18, 2025, Young Ju projected that Bitcoin would experience price movements that tend to be sideways or bearish for the next 6-12 months, as the bull run momentum weakens.
Summary Key Takeaways
ShowIndications from Trading Volume and Liquidity
Based on information cited from Coinvestasi, although Bitcoin’s trading volume reached a record close to US$100,000, its price barely moved.
Young Ju emphasized that without new liquidity to balance significant selling pressure, bearish signals are becoming stronger.
He also noted that on-chain realized capitalization has stagnated, indicating that there is no new capital flowing into the market.
For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded three consecutive weeks of outflows.
Risk of Price Decline to US$63,000
A separate report from CryptoQuant warns of the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the US$63,000 level, based on bearish signals from several key valuation metrics.
One indicator of concern is the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which compares Bitcoin’s market value (MV) with its realized value (RV) to identify whether the asset is overbought or oversold.
The decline in Bitcoin demand, evident from the slowdown in whale accumulation and the net outflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs, could add further selling pressure and increase the risk of a deeper price correction.
Current Bitcoin Price Trends
Since early February 2025, Bitcoin’s price has significantly declined by more than 23% from its all-time high above US$109,000 on January 20, 2025.
As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately US$82,800, with a market capitalization of US$1.64 trillion.
Conclusion
The latest indicators suggest that the Bitcoin bull market cycle may have ended, with potential price movements tending to be sideways or bearish in the coming months.
Investors are advised to closely monitor market developments and consider investment strategies that align with the current market conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What does it mean when the Bitcoin bull market cycle ends?
Bitcoin’s bull market cycle ends when the strong upward trend in prices begins to weaken, and the market shows a more stagnant or bearish movement. This is usually marked by decreasing liquidity, reduced new capital inflows, and increased selling pressure.
What are the main factors causing the Bitcoin price to drop?
Some of the main factors that triggered the Bitcoin price decline include stagnant on-chain realized capitalization, increasing selling pressure, reduced capital inflows into the market, and decreased demand from large investors (whales) and institutions such as Bitcoin-based ETFs.
Will Bitcoin continue to fall to the US$63,000 level?
According to a CryptoQuant report, there is a possibility that Bitcoin could drop to $63,000 if selling pressure continues to increase and no new liquidity enters the market. However, price movements always depend on various factors, including investor response and global market dynamics.
